Utah loses more jobs in March

By Jasen Lee, Deseret News
Published: Thursday, April 16, 2009 5:31 p.m. MDT

Economists say a day will come when Utah will again boast about the addition of more jobs to the state's growing economy. Unfortunately, that day isn't here yet.

For the fifth consecutive month, Utah saw its jobless rate increase, the state Department of Workforce Services said Thursday.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Utah's nonfarm wage and salaried job count for March 2009 contracted by 2.6 percent, putting the state's overall unemployment rate at 5.2 percent. Over the past year, approximately 32,800 jobs have been lost from the Utah economy.

Workforce Services' chief economist, Mark Knold, said the worst could still be to come.

"It's going to push up into 6 percent and probably into 7 percent before this is all said and done," he predicted.

The peak unemployment time for the state could come about this time next year, he said.

Knold said that the state's jobless rate sat at 2.4 percent in early 2007, but since then, the Utah economy has seen a relatively steady increase in the number of jobs lost from month to month.

Last March, the state's jobless rate was 3.3 percent, which translated into a 1.9 percentage-point increase over the past 12 months. Approximately 71,700 Utahns were considered unemployed in March 2009, compared with 45,800 last March.

Utah's February 2009 unemployment rate was 5.1 percent. The U.S. unemployment rate continued to rise, reaching 8.5 percent for March.

"We have several more months of additional falling numbers ahead of us yet, but there are some encouraging signs, or 'green shoots,' that may be emerging in the national economy," Knold said Thursday in a news release. "These include a stock market that probably has moved above its low point, national housing sales showing an uptick and unemployment claims — though still harmfully high — no longer rising.

"These sprouts signal an approaching bottom, which is the next reference point along the path of this current business cycle."

Knold said, however, that he expects to see similar figures next month as the state continues to struggle on the job front.

"The job-loss number will be deeper; the unemployment rate will be higher," he told the Deseret News. "We anticipate that we're going to keep doing that all the way through … the third quarter of this year and maybe a few months beyond that."

Jobs losses in Utah may begin to stabilize late this year or early next year with the unemployment rate topping out in the 8 percent range, he added.

He said that for years prior to the national economic meltdown, Utah's employment picture was often quite positive, and he stressed that it would be again someday. But for now, the state finds itself in what is likely a prolonged downward trend.

"The economy operates like that. It gets in ruts where it's real good, then it will change and go into rut where it's bad for a while," Knold said. "A couple of years from now, we'll be talking about a good rut again."

E-MAIL: jlee@desnews.com
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