Unemployment rate in Utah dipped a bit in November

Unemployment rate in Utah dipped a bit in November
Deseret News
Thursday, Dec. 17, 2009 10:07 p.m. MST

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's unemployment rate improved slightly in November, although its nonfarm wage and salaried job count continued to decline, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor and the Utah Department of Workforce Services. But a state economist warned that unemployment is not finished climbing.

It probably won't rise drastically, but Mark Knold, chief economist for the department, doesn't expect unemployment rates to peak for about six months.

The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in November, down from October's 6.5 percent. Knold said that number was probably an outlier, so the return in November to 6.3 percent was more in line with the slight monthly increases. "If you do enough surveying, every now and then you get a hiccup or an outlier," he said.

Last November, Utah had an unemployment rate of 3.8 percent, which was a 2.5 percentage-point increase over November 2007. The state says that about 86,200 Utahns were considered unemployed last month, compared with 52,600 in November 2008.

The national unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent to 10 percent in November.

Unemployment is a "lagging" indicator, meaning one of the last to change between a recession and recovery, Knold said. And many things can drive up unemployment numbers, because counts involve those who are actively searching for work. Numbers can fall when people have given up and temporarily dropped out of the search. People returning to college — and they're doing that now in droves, he said — can improve the numbers because they are no longer counted among those looking and not finding work. Even optimism can drive up unemployment, because it sometimes moves people back into the job market.

The nonfarm and salaried job count for November 2009 shrunk by 3.1 percent, which was an improvement over October. An estimated 38,800 jobs have been removed from the state's economy over the past 12 months. Total wage and salary employment is now 1.21 million.

Those slowing job losses are the "theme" in Utah's unemployment picture, Knold said. Utah apparently hit its low point in this recession in August in terms of job loss.

According to Workforce Services, the sector that fared best for job growth was health care. Government employment has expanded, too. Construction showed the biggest job loss, down 11,900, but manufacturing wasn't far behind with 10,700 fewer jobs. In that broad category, though, four areas of nondurable goods made gains: food, beverages, apparel and petroleum products. Together, the four make up 16 percent of Utah's manufacturing base.

e-mail: lois@desnews.com. TWITTER: loisco
© 2009 Deseret News Publishing Company | All rights reserved