All gauges point to modest growth

All gauges point to modest growth
Utah manufacturing improves but trails Wyoming, Colorado

By Brice Wallace
Deseret News, March 1, 2010

Utah's economic outlook continues to improve, according to a monthly business conditions gauge released Monday.

The Goss Institute for Economic Research's monthly business conditions index for the state rose to 55.8 in February from January's 52.7.

The index ranges from zero to 100, with a figure higher than 50 indicating an expansionary economy over the next three to six months. The index figure is derived from a survey of the state's supply managers.



Components of the overall index for February were new orders at 59.5, production or sales at 60.3, delivery lead time at 49.9, inventories at 59.2, and employment at 50.2.

Utah's overall index generally has been rising since last April. It is at its highest point since reaching 60.6 in October 2007.

"Manufacturing firms in the state have lost more than 11,000 jobs over the past year, or more than 7 percent of the state's manufacturing base," Ernie Goss, director of the institute and Creighton University Economic Forecasting Group, said in a prepared statement. "Based on surveys over the past several months, I expect slight manufacturing job gains and flat overall job growth for the state for the second quarter of 2010."
Story continues below

The three-state Mountain States region saw its overall index rise for the fifth straight month. It climbed to 58.6 in February from January's "healthy" 55.6, Goss said.

"Readings over the past several months indicate that the regional economic rebound that is under way will pick up steam in the months ahead... . The likelihood of the regional economy dipping back into recessionary territory has diminished significantly according to our surveys of supply managers. While I expect the overall regional economy to expand in the months ahead, I continue to expect job growth to be subdued, especially for rural areas of the three-state region."

Colorado's index rose to 58.2 from January's 56.2. Wyoming's grew to 65.0 from January's 62.8.

The Goss institute uses the same methodology as the Institute for Supply Management uses for a national index. The nationwide figure was 56.5 in February, down from 58.4 in January.

Contributing: Associated Press

e-mail: bwallace@desnews.com