Utah business-conditions index rises in March

Utah business-conditions index rises in March

By Brice Wallace, Deseret News
Published: Thursday, April 1, 2010 11:33 a.m. MDT

Utah's business conditions improved just a hair in March, according to a monthly gauge released Thursday.

The Goss Institute for Economic Research said Utah's Business Conditions Index was 55.9 in March, up from 55.8 in February.

The index ranges from zero to 100, with a figure higher than 50 indicating an expansionary economy over the next three to six months. It is derived from a survey of the state's supply managers.

Components of Utah's overall index for March were new orders at 59.5, production or sales at 60.6, delivery lead time at 51.1, inventories at 57.1 and employment at 51.1.

"When the government releases March employment data, I expect it to show that Utah's level of employment was virtually unchanged for the first quarter of 2010," Ernie Goss, the institute's director and also director of Creighton University's Economic Forecasting Group, said in a prepared statement.

"Based on our surveys over the past several months, Utah will add jobs, albeit at a slow pace, for the second quarter of 2010. Even as the state adds jobs, I expect the state's unemployment rate to remain above 6.5 percent for the remainder of 2010."

The three-state Mountain region — consisting of Utah, Wyoming and Colorado — posted an index of 56.6 in March, a figure Goss described as "healthy" despite being down from February's 58.6. Still, it was the sixth consecutive month for the index to be above growth-neutral 50.0.

Utah was the only state of the three to see month-to-month improvement.

"While the region has yet to record overall and significant positive job growth according to government data, surveys over the past several months indicate that the region experienced slight positive job growth for the first quarter of 2010," Goss said.

The region's manufacturing and value-added services sectors are experiencing strong business activity, Goss said, adding that he expects the increase in activity to extend to the rest of the regional economy in the months ahead.

Colorado's index, above 50.0 for the sixth straight month, was 57.0 in March, down from February's 58.8. Wyoming's index in March was described as "still healthy" at 57.5 despite falling from 65.0 in February.

The Goss institute uses the same methodology as a national index undertaken by the Institute for Supply Management. ISM said Thursday that the national figure in March was 59.6, up from 56.5 in February. It represented the eighth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since July 2004, when the index was 59.9.

Contributing: Associated Press

e-mail: bwallace@desnews.com
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