Friday, December 18, 2009

Unemployment rate in Utah dipped a bit in November

Unemployment rate in Utah dipped a bit in November
Deseret News
Thursday, Dec. 17, 2009 10:07 p.m. MST

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's unemployment rate improved slightly in November, although its nonfarm wage and salaried job count continued to decline, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor and the Utah Department of Workforce Services. But a state economist warned that unemployment is not finished climbing.

It probably won't rise drastically, but Mark Knold, chief economist for the department, doesn't expect unemployment rates to peak for about six months.

The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in November, down from October's 6.5 percent. Knold said that number was probably an outlier, so the return in November to 6.3 percent was more in line with the slight monthly increases. "If you do enough surveying, every now and then you get a hiccup or an outlier," he said.

Last November, Utah had an unemployment rate of 3.8 percent, which was a 2.5 percentage-point increase over November 2007. The state says that about 86,200 Utahns were considered unemployed last month, compared with 52,600 in November 2008.

The national unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent to 10 percent in November.

Unemployment is a "lagging" indicator, meaning one of the last to change between a recession and recovery, Knold said. And many things can drive up unemployment numbers, because counts involve those who are actively searching for work. Numbers can fall when people have given up and temporarily dropped out of the search. People returning to college — and they're doing that now in droves, he said — can improve the numbers because they are no longer counted among those looking and not finding work. Even optimism can drive up unemployment, because it sometimes moves people back into the job market.

The nonfarm and salaried job count for November 2009 shrunk by 3.1 percent, which was an improvement over October. An estimated 38,800 jobs have been removed from the state's economy over the past 12 months. Total wage and salary employment is now 1.21 million.

Those slowing job losses are the "theme" in Utah's unemployment picture, Knold said. Utah apparently hit its low point in this recession in August in terms of job loss.

According to Workforce Services, the sector that fared best for job growth was health care. Government employment has expanded, too. Construction showed the biggest job loss, down 11,900, but manufacturing wasn't far behind with 10,700 fewer jobs. In that broad category, though, four areas of nondurable goods made gains: food, beverages, apparel and petroleum products. Together, the four make up 16 percent of Utah's manufacturing base.

e-mail: lois@desnews.com. TWITTER: loisco
© 2009 Deseret News Publishing Company | All rights reserved

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Economic woes easing but not gone for Utah County

Economic woes easing but not gone for Utah County

Heidi Toth - Daily Herald | Posted: Wednesday, December 16, 2009 12:40 am

PROVO -- Economic recovery is coming, agree people in the know. They also agree that recovery may be a long, slow process, a stark contrast to the economic freefall of a year ago.

A study released Tuesday by the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program detailed the effects of the recession and the coming recovery on the Intermountain West. The numbers show that while the Provo-Orem area was hit hard, especially with the sharp decline in the construction industry, the effects could have been much worse.

As in, Provo could have been Las Vegas, a city still wallowing in foreclosures, high unemployment and depressed home values.

The bad news for Provo is in the real estate sector; home prices in September were down 8.3 percent from September 2008 and employment dropped 6.2 percent in the same time period, largely because of the construction industry, said Jonathan Rothwell, a senior research analyst. Almost 10 percent of employment in the area is in construction, compared to the U.S. average of 7.3 percent.

Overall, Provo-Orem was in the second-weakest quintile of 100 largest metro areas nationwide. The good news is that the unemployment rate only dropped 2.5 percent from September 2008 to September 2009, ranking Provo 23rd nationally, and employment was higher in Provo before the recession than any other city in the region except Las Vegas. Unemployment this fall was the lowest in the region and almost half, at 5.4 percent, of the national average of 9.5 percent. The gross municipal product is creeping up, meaning people are spending money, and the foreclosure rate is lower than any regional city except Ogden.

Part of that is a boost from the federal stimulus package, but part of it indicates economic growth. Unemployment rates should stop slipping soon, and growth will get moving.

"It's not clear how long it's going to take and how much growth is needed and whether or not that growth is sustainable, frankly," Rothwell said.

Provo's biggest benefit is the presence of BYU and UVU, which leads both to a more educated work force and education jobs that remain viable no matter how low the economy gets. Because so many people work in education or other necessary jobs that require special skills, more people remain employed.

"That's a big deal to a lot of businesses," said Steve Densley, president of the Utah Valley Chamber of Commerce.

He saw both the good signs -- building, businesses still wanting to move here, even the snow that drives people to shop locally -- and the worrisome factors -- fear of the Obama Administration's health care proposal, more tight-fisted consumers during the Christmas season and false positives from the stimulus. He remains cautiously optimistic about the next little while.

"The construction market pretty well leads us in and out of recessions," he said.

Heidi Toth can be reached at (801) 344-2556 or htoth@heraldextra.com.

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Economy could recover by 2011

Economy could recover by 2011

Dec. 11, 2009
ABC4 News

SALT LAKE CITY (ABC 4 News) - The economy in Utah could turn around by 2011. That's according to a new study from the University of Utah.

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research says 20,000 jobs should return to our economy by 2011.

It's also predicting the unemployment rate will drop to 6.4%. But they say unemployment will continue to rise and peak next year at 6.8%. Right now, it stands at 6.5%

Copyright 2009 Newport Television LLC All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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One in four Utah banks under federal orders to shape up

One in four Utah banks under federal orders to shape up
Finance » Regulators move against lenders holding soured real-estate loans.


By Paul Beebe
December 18, 2009
The Salt Lake Tribune

Federal regulators, who have drawn criticism for not doing more to arrest the nation's financial crisis, have clamped down hard on Utah banks this year.

They have ordered at least 18 lenders to clean up their books, and more enforcement actions may be on the way. Given that Utah has only 71 banks, the number of lenders with problems dire enough to warrant federal intervention raises questions about the stability of some and the willingness of others to extend credit as the state tries to restart its economy.

Bankers say the intense scrutiny by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve is galling and unwelcome, but not surprising. Utah banks focused heavily on real-estate lending during boom times earlier this decade. Many of those loans went bad when the state entered its worst recession in 80 years and real estate collapsed.

The actions do not threaten deposits at any of the banks. The FDIC insures bank accounts for up to $250,000.

"When you look at the involvement that the banks have had in the real-estate market and the dramatic change in values, it's created a lot of pressure" on banks, said David Brown, president of First Utah Bank.

The Salt Lake City-based lender reached an agreement with the Fed in September to strengthen board oversight of management, shore up credit risk-management practices and charge off or foreclose on loans that weren't collectible.

"It's really a loan-quality issue," said Howard Holt, president of Brighton Bank, which is not under any enforcement action.

Earlier this year, the FDIC seized two Utah banks -- America West Bank of Layton in May and MagnetBank of Salt Lake City in January. They were among 130 banks closed nationwide by the agency so far this year.

Drawing less attention, though, were actions taken by the FDIC and the Fed against 11 Utah-chartered banks, four industrial banks and one out-of-state bank with a state charter -- America West -- which later was closed.

The FDIC issued 13 cease-and-desist orders to 12 banks, demanding measures ranging from boosting capital reserves to cleaning up bad-loan portfolios. Similar directives called written agreements went to three banks from the Fed. Two banks received orders from both agencies.

By contrast, the FDIC sent six formal orders to Utah banks last year. One went to the defunct MagnetBank. The Fed issued none.

The orders from the FDIC also called on banks to improve lending and collection practices, and to increase reserves for future loan losses. Bank directors were instructed to improve their weak oversight of management. Managers were told to fix policies and practices that put deposits in jeopardy.

Industrial banks, which are state-chartered financial companies that lend money, were instructed, variously, to shore up their capital or extend credit to their parent companies, some of which have filed for bankruptcy.

It isn't clear exactly how worried the Fed, the FDIC and their state partner, the Department of Financial Institutions, are about the wobbly banks. None would elaborate on their orders, preferring to let the documents speak for themselves. The paperwork provides tantalizing clues, but the language is generalized. The orders are broad statements written mainly to confirm the banks' problems and the corrective actions lenders must take or face sanctions, ranging from fines to being seized.

"We don't want to get misconstrued in what we are saying. We hope that what is in the cease-and-desist order is clear enough," said Paul Allred, deputy commissioner of the Department of Financial Institutions.

Howard Headlee, president of the Utah Bankers Association, said orders from the Fed and the FDIC are "tools to improve the situation" and that "regulators are like a doctor. They've come in and identified an issue or issues, and [orders are] a prescription for health. In the vast majority of cases, that is what they lead to."

Banks, he said, are a business, "and as we know, businesses throughout our economy are under tremendous stress in this recession. And that's where you find out where the weaknesses are. The enforcement actions just help to address those weaknesses."

Additional financial institutions may be struggling, too. John Allen, president of SunFirst Bank in St. George, recently estimated that "about half of the banks" in the state are under some sort of formal or informal order to improve their operations.

"The economy caught everybody," said Allen, whose bank received a cease-and-desist order.

Randy Hoyt, president of Western Community Bank in Orem, said what hasn't been made public by the FDIC or the Fed are numerous nonpublic "MOUs" -- memorandums of understanding -- that banks and regulators have agreed to this year.

"Every bank in the state of Utah is most likely dealing with some type of formal or informal action to improve or strengthen their foundations," said Hoyt, whose bank received a cease-and-desist order. "This is a time when regulators and banks working together certainly requires patience on both sides as financial institutions work through this uncertain economy."

Banks aren't the only lenders struggling. Holt of Brighton Bank said credit unions with big bets on real estate are in trouble, too.

"I don't know of any traditional Utah banks or credit unions that were involved in real-estate lending that have not experienced at least some loan problems. It just goes with the territory," Holt said.

Brighton Bank wasn't placed under a cease-and-desist order, but it has at the FDIC's request consented to increase its reserves for loan losses, he said.

"I think a number of the banks that they visit, they are recommending increasing their allowance for loan loss, and I think this is wise. This is a prudent move," Holt said.

At the same time, banks have cut lending and stiffened credit standards, which means they aren't supporting Utah's recovery with loans to start or expand businesses as they otherwise might.

"If you were to go to a gas station and they rationed the gas that you can have, it's going to limit how much you can drive," said Kendall Phillips, president of Liberty Bank of Utah in Salt Lake City.

"When you have lending that is curtailed, it slows down everything."

Utah community banks loaded up on real-estate loans in the years leading up to the recession because of inroads credit unions have made into areas such as car loans and consumer loans, said Headlee of the bankers association.

"In many cases it wasn't a choice. The encroaching of credit unions into many of the areas traditionally served by banks has forced us to focus our resources on a smaller and smaller segment of the economy, real estate being the primary segment."

Ezra Harris, a credit risk-management consultant in Kaysville, traces banks' real-estate loan woes to legislation Congress passed in 1977 that required them to lend in low-income neighborhoods where they take deposits. The Community Redevelopment Act forced banks to make loans they would otherwise would reject as unsound, he said.

"Then [Congress] went further and pressured Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be the ultimate financing sources of these loans. So here you have an unqualified borrower come into the bank. The bank says we've got to make our quota of CRA loans. Here's one. We'll make it and we'll sell it to Freddie Mac," Harris said.

Harris said former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's low-interest rate policy after the 2001 recession also stoked the subprime financial crisis. Cheap loans drew millions of people into the housing market, setting off an unsustainable bubble.

But he also blames the greed of boards and obliging management of some banks. Many community banks are closely held institutions, owned by a small number of shareholders. Their ambitions are to grow their banks' profitability in order to sell them or to increase the value of their shares.

"Can they dominate management? You'd better believe it," said Harris, a former president of New England Savings Bank in New London, Conn.

One way investors can boost a bank's value is to push managers to make riskier high-return loans that carry high fees and interest rates.

"But the offsetting factor is the probability that a higher percentage of high-risk loans are going to get in trouble, especially if there is a concentration of real-estate loans and the real-estate market goes into the tank," Harris said.

The upshot of so much regulatory and market turmoil has gone to the bottom line of many lenders. They are diverting profits into building reserves against the possibility of more loan losses, said Hoyt of Western Community Bank.

pbeebe@sltrib.com


Utah banks under fire from federal regulators this year:

Advanta Bank, Draper, two cease-and-desist orders from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., June 24

American Express Centurion Bank, Salt Lake City, cease-and-desist, FDIC, June 5

America West Bank Members, Layton, written agreement, Federal Reserve, Jan. 22; closed by FDIC and Utah Department of Financial Institutions, May 1

Barnes Bancorp and Barnes Banking Co., Kaysvillle, written agreement, Federal Reserve, May 13

Capital Community Bank, Provo, cease-and-desist, FDIC, May 18

Capmark Bank, cease-and-desist, FDIC, Oct. 1

Centennial Bank, Ogden, cease-and-desist, FDIC, June 25 (Vision Bancorp has agreed to buy controlling interest in Centennial)

CIT Bank, Salt Lake City, cease-and-desist, FDIC, July 16

First Utah Bank, Salt Lake City, written agreement, Federal Reserve, Sept. 22

Gunnison Valley Bank, Gunnison, cease-and-desist, FDIC, Sept. 23

Liberty Bank, Salt Lake City, cease-and-desist, FDIC, May 21

MagnetBank, closed by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the FDIC, Jan. 30

Prime Alliance Bank, Woods Cross, cease-and-desist, FDIC, June 22

SunFirst Bank, St. George, cease-and-desist, FDIC, Oct. 7

Utah Community Bank, Sandy, cease-and-desist, FDIC, July 15

Western Community Bank, Orem, cease-and-desist, FDIC, Aug. 20

Woodlands Commercial Bank, written agreement, Salt Lake City, Federal Reserve, Feb. 4
Deposits insured

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. insures bank accounts and other deposits up to $250,000.

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