The worst is over for Utah, national economies

The worst is over for Utah, national economies

By Mike Gorrell
Salt Lake Tribune
01/07/2010 02:48:45 PM MST


Using different words, national and state economists offered the same message Thursday in delivering the 2010 Economic Report to the Governor.

"A theme of emerging recovery" is how Juliette Tennert, chief economist in the Governor's Office of Planning Budget, characterized conditions in Utah.

Nationally, "the worst is over. We've hit bottom," echoed David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's, a 150-year-old financial-services company whose stock, bond and credit ratings are watched closely by the business community.

"We're at the stage of the cycle where things are not getting worse," he added, cautioning that there will be a slow recovery from "a terrible recession that could have been a lot worse. ... But half a recovery is better than none. You take what you can get."

Their comments were made to Gov. Gary Herbert and about 350 business people at the downtown Salt Lake City Marriott during a breakfast meeting organized by the Salt Lake Chamber and the Wasatch Front Economic Forum.

Heading into his first budget session with the Legislature, the new governor said his top priority is to protect the jobs that Utahns already have and to create opportunities for existing businesses to grow and for outside companies to come in.

He said Utah is better positioned than most states to accomplish those goals, but he acknowledges: "I don't want to minimize that people are hurting out there." Herbert also vowed to the business people that "we'll do all we can to keep government off your back and out of your wallets."

Tennert's outlook projected that Utah's unemployment rate will increase this year to 6.8 percent (it was 6.2 percent in November). But that negative increase will be moderated by increases in average pay, a slowdown in the decline of home prices and a return to positive growth in retail sales (2.2 percent) from 2009's discouraging 8.3 percent drop.

While state revenues will have declined by $1 billion from 2008 to 2010, Tennert said the downward slides of income and sales taxes are both decelerating.

mikeg@sltrib.com